Gold Holds Firm Near $5,000 as Fed Split and Middle East Risk Lift Safe-Haven Demand

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Feb 20th, 2026 2:30:14 PM EST

Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets— and may continue to in the future.

Here’s what you need to know:

Thin holiday liquidity and broad liquidation pressure pushed gold to a weekly low near $4,860 before buyers stepped back in and rebuilt positions.
Fed meeting minutes reinforced a split committee, keeping rate-cut expectations in play and helping gold stay well-supported around the $5,000 level.
Rising geopolitical risk helped trigger a risk-off bid late in the week, lifting gold back above $5,000 and toward a potential ~$5,100 close.
Soft Q4 GDP and a Supreme Court ruling against the Trump tariff strategy could shift next week’s focus to Fed speak and White House messaging.

So, What Kind of a Week Has it Been?

It has not been all that long, on a reasonable scale, since a stretch of trading like the last 4-5 days would be considered a wild one for the gold market, with spot prices moving around a range wider than $150/oz.

Within the context of the last 18 months, however, this week has been a relatively calm one, although it does appear to have been another stretch of healthy consolidation at a very elevated price point.

Sellers Rule Over Thin Markets

Trading volumes were markedly lower on Monday due to the US President’s Day holiday, which left most American trade desks with light coverage and minimum activity.

While the number of trades placed on the day was well below normal, the clear consensus trade was to resume some of the liquidation trend we saw last week. The downward pressure that might otherwise have been thought of as negligible had an outsized impact on the yellow metal, with spot prices falling throughout Monday to the weekly low point near $4860/oz.

Gold did not pause at the nadir for long, however, as the return of US desks to the market brought back a flush of investors and managers still keen to reopen or upsize positions at the start of the week.

Whether because of a view that the week’s upcoming macro data would further the argument for the FOMC to resume lowering interest rates sooner, or a more fundamental hedge against geopolitical and trade instability across the globe (as we’ll see, both turned out to be appropriate calls), Tuesday’s trading resulted in a strong rally for gold spot prices which once again moved just above $5000 and would only modestly correct back below over the next two sessions.

Meeting Minutes Show a Divided Fed

On Wednesday the Federal Reserve released meeting minutes for the last FOMC gathering, and the primary takeaway for analysts, economists, and other Fed-watchers was that the committee is clearly divided into two camps: one leaning towards resuming cuts to key policy rates earlier than expected if even early signs (the first of which we already saw last week) of cooler inflation arise, and one that more adamantly sticks to projections of rate cuts later in the year after, presumably, a series of lighter CPI prints.

From an objective standpoint, we are still too early to say which side has more sway or might ultimately win out. But that didn’t stop markets this week from leaning into the argument that cracks in the consensus only presage earlier action.

Gold prices remained well-supported after the release. While there was not an acute jump higher (owing at least in part to the uncertainty of a split-FOMC), spot prices remained at or just marginally below $5000.

Darkening Geopolitical Risk

The market’s attention on Thursday was dominated by reports of a large influx of US military personnel and material into the Middle East, taken as a possible indicator of an increased likelihood of the US launching strikes against sensitive Iranian sites.

“Risk-off” was the name of the game in commodity markets as a result. While the surge in oil prices was the least surprising move of the bunch, gold prices also began elevating quickly in the overnight session, moving beyond $5000.

The swing has continued into Friday, pulling the yellow metal closer to a weekly close at $5100/oz.

Next Up

The final trading week of February 2026 looks to be fairly quiet from a macroeconomic standpoint.

That said, with the revelations of Friday morning of lethargic US economic growth (as measured by GDP) in Q4 of last year, and the US Supreme Court ruling against the Trump Tariff strategy as an unconstitutional enactment, we will expect the market to focus on public appearances by FOMC officials next week to parse their impressions of how both of these factors may influence monetary policy decisions.

We also expect attention on rhetoric from the White House on how they may manage the implications—legal and otherwise—of the SCOTUS decision.

In the meantime, traders, I hope you can get out and safely enjoy your weekend for the next couple of days. After that, I’ll see you back here next week for another market recap.

Matthew Bolden

Matthew Bolden is an active trader and investor. His passions include writing about financial markets in a simple, pragmatic way. His work has been seen in various arenas within the world of global finance, and he has written commentary on several markets including precious metals, stocks, currencies and options.

Matthew is an avid reader, student of the markets and sports enthusiast who resides in the greater Chicago area.

Courtsey To : Goldprice