Gold Holds Near $4,340 as Weak U.S. Data Collides With Rate-Cut Doubts

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Dec 19th, 2025 3:14:39 PM EST

Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets— and may continue to in the future.

Key Takeaways

Here’s what you need to know:

Gold is on pace for a roughly $50/oz weekly gain, but has traded mostly flat near $4,340/oz after an early-week push higher.
A wave of weak U.S. data (jobs, unemployment, and retail sales) didn’t spark a sustained rally, suggesting gold may be running into a near-term ceiling.
Markets questioned how “clean” this week’s inflation signals were after October’s shutdown, limiting CPI’s impact on rate-cut expectations.
ETF and central bank demand—plus persistent geopolitical risk—continue to provide support at current levels.

Gold spot prices are on track for a healthy week-over-week gain of roughly $50/oz as markets roll to a close on the final five-day trading week of 2025.

The yellow metal made a strong start to the week, and investors and managers braced for a heavy dose of important macro data that they hoped would support projections for at least two more rate cuts next year.

But following a strong Monday and a temporary correction lower on Tuesday morning, prices have remained relatively stable and flat along a line at $4340/oz.

Labor Data Weighs on Rate-Cut Conviction

Tuesday’s sell-off appeared to be an adjustment based on arguments made by some analysts that key employment data for October and November, finally released that morning, was either too stale or possibly too incomplete to firmly pressure the Fed to look at another rate cut as early as January.

This is despite the data sets for both months looking objectively bad for the health of the US labor market (and economy), including the highest unemployment rate in four years.

Indeed, positive—or even neutral—indications of US economic health were hard to find this week, even with the heavier-than-usual flow of key reports.

A Weak Week of “Hard” Economic Prints

In addition to the 4.6% unemployment rate, Non-Farm Payrolls for October 2025 reported a loss of 105,000 jobs across the US, while also revising the previous month’s count lower.

The November NFP marked only 64,000 new jobs added.

Retail Sales “growth” for October was also printed on Tuesday, at 0% month-over-month and another downward revision of previous marks.

CPI Looks Better on Paper, But Confidence Is Shaky

Although the November CPI data released on Thursday nominally improved upon the projection (Core CPI printing at +2.6% YoY vs. +3% exp.,) the overall consensus of the market has been that there are too many questions around the accuracy of the metrics as a result of the lengthy US government shutdown in October for investors or traders to put much stock in this as reliable input.

Gold Holds Support—But May Be Hitting a Near-Term Ceiling

The fact that all hard data inputs were generally bad (to use a very technical term) this week, but at the same time gold prices have not seen any sharp rallies higher since Monday, is an indicator that the precious metal may have reached a ceiling under current market conditions, temporary or otherwise.

On the other side, however, gold clearly maintains healthy support at the current levels thanks to consistent demand from ETFs and central bank purchases, as well as the pervasive geopolitical worries that have underpinned many of the ongoing trades of 2025.Holiday Trading: Calm, But Thin

Next week, we move fully into the holiday season, with Christmas closing markets on Thursday, but also the expectation that trade desks and market floors will be sparsely attended for the next 2-3 weeks.

This means that markets should, for the most part, trade calmly. However, it also means that market depth will be at the year’s thinnest for many major asset classes, so if there are any exogenous shocks to be reckoned with, we could see brief surges in volatility.

In the meantime, traders, I hope you can get out and safely enjoy your weekend for the next couple of days. After that, I’ll see you back here next week for another market recap.

Matthew Bolden

Matthew Bolden is an active trader and investor. His passions include writing about financial markets in a simple, pragmatic way. His work has been seen in various arenas within the world of global finance, and he has written commentary on several markets including precious metals, stocks, currencies and options.

Matthew is an avid reader, student of the markets and sports enthusiast who resides in the greater Chicago area.

Courtsey To : Goldprice